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Probably during the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this pandemic. I got sick, I gained weight. My body just doesn’t feel the same you know, I’m tired and sore all the time.

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this line specifically is soooooo forensic files coded it makes me think she watches/has watched true crime doc shows like that I thought it was good too. Mainly because it was improv and the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this girls are 100% funnier than the typical scripted challenges On a Taco Tuesday, she never left her card. She like the soft shell, with carne asada that’s her favourite with guacamole. And guacamole’s expensive. She’s not gonna leave without her card. That was weird for me. I love the idea as a true crime buff but IDK if they could get away with doing it with real cases without offending too many people. Like yes, you can make that sort of thing funny, but you’d have to be really careful about the cases you chose. I could even see them doing a Chicago-style number to it (“He Had It Coming”). They probably wouldn’t do it but yeah, it could absolutely work.
Wars are unpredictable. There are a million things that could happen, especially if it escalates and other countries get involved. Yes yes you’re so philosophical, in war the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this governments themselves have clear cut winners but the poor bastards fighting the war are all losers Also you would see Ukraine is winning it comments when thing were going well but when the opposite happens it’s all about “winning a war is relative” Depends on how you measure “winning” in a war. If you go by captured land, Russia still controls roughly 15% of Ukraine territory and has done so for almost 2 years now. So…. 15% is shockingly low. Are we counting Crimea here because if that’s all it is, then no, no they are not winning the war. Your bathroom is probably only 15% of your house, but if I come over and decide to live in it, you’re probably going to find that significant It’s about 100% of their war objective and by crusader king rules this will result in war score victory ( depending of which casus belli was used) Nah, they clearly stated Kyiv as a goal and they haven’t even taken all of Luhansk or Donetsk oblasts. Plus we all know that your capital is like 20% of your VP points… oh shit wrong game

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Yes, that includes Crimea. Russia controlled a bit over 40,000km of Ukraine in 2021. They peaked at about 160,000km after the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this full invasion, and are down to around 85,000km today. Taking territory is one thing. Holding it is another. If both taking and holding costs you more than you can get out of it, then it becomes even more questionable how that can be counted as winning. That’s how Russians fight mate. War of attrition. That’s how they won WW2, and if the Western aid dries up they will win this too So? Russia now has money from oil and gas. They don’t need any aid. While the economy of Europe is at a downfall, the Russian economy has only grown. And the soviets also won because of the sheer number of men they threw at the Nazis. Russians can do the same again without any problem. It’s victory Russia if the aid dries out for Ukraine
What has actually grown in Russia? Weapon restoration from old stockpiles, wages across the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this board leading to wage competition (because there is also acute labor shortage) and some weapon production. They’re cutting from social security funds, road and infrastructure maintenance. None of those grow the economy. Lot of foreign investors have fled, Russian industries like car factories have crashed and been largely replaced by Chinese imports. Nothing good has happened to Russia since their invasion. Putin wanted a 3-day war, that should tell you everything. Considering the USSR no longer exists I think they lost the follow up to WW2. Starting with the fall of the Berlin wall and then my own country being freed from the completely incompetent communists in 1989 and many such other cases I think they were defeated handedly and will be again here. Yes but it’s been over a year since any real progress has been made to reduce it… things have stagnated and I believe we will see a DMZ established along the Donbas sadly.
I’m pro-Ukraine but that’s the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this reality I’m predicting, not a win but a compromise where Ukraine neither Russia get fully what they want. It doesn’t matter if they win in Ukraine because what they’ve shown is that they’re completely defenseless against a functional United States. That means that if Ukraine can hold out until November, Russia will enjoy the full attention of a very, very fucking interested United States. And we already helped Ukraine sand off the good half of their army. If Biden wins, nothing changes in the current policies, grandpa sniffsyourhair can’t get anything passed as long as the moron caucus dominates the gop, and with it, the house. Hold up…. Are you using that time that Biden showed platonic affection to his grieving granddaughter at her fathers funeral as a reason to insult him? It wasn’t just that time. I guess by saying grandpa I may have inadvertently put that link out there, which wasn’t my attention. To be fair, if sniffing during hugs is the worst people can say about him that puts him leagues ahead of most politicians. Edit: honestly don’t understand why I’m being downvoted, for asking a question, on, wait for it, r/NoStupidQuestions
Is it different than what you’d find in other countries? Do you suggest the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this breakdown is clearly ethnically segregated or social-economically segregated? Just the Moscow urban area has 22mi inhabitants, together with St Petersburg/Leningrad oblast that is 30mi. Which is 1/5 of the population of Russia. All stats about mobilisation indicate most soldiers come from places like Buriatya, Tula or other areas with non-Russian ethnic concentration. It’s a massive disparity compared to actual population representation. I’m asking because I don’t follow this closely (see name of sub). I’m just trying to understand – is that conscription done there intentionally? is that the claim? Yeah that is the claim, that Putin is using this war to kill off ethnic minorities of Russia. You could say that it is more that Putin is afraid of the population rioting if “real” Russians are killed, so he sends the less educated and less politically enabled, but that is just as bad. The same thing was said about the US military during Vietnam and it was largely true, but the ratio of casualties compared to the ratio of the population for US minorities was incredibly small compared to what we’re seeing for Russian minorities in this war, and that was the 60’s in a very truly racist America Poor going in army, region with biggest % of ethnic minorities usually very poor = many recruts = many killed. Moscow is rich = no troops = no death. And if NATO would like to, it would end quick, but they in difference to russia value lives and don’t just burn our earth.
There wouldn’t be any russian near ukraine within hours, but NATO aren’t murders like russia so we wait minimize damage on both sides and contain. I would disagree. Ukraine seems more interested in the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this survival of their soliders, but they are very willing to fight. Yes russia has 4 times as many people, but they are probably not willing to send remotely as big a part of their population as ukraine. You would think. But Russia has tens of millions of men they can push to the front lines, literally forcing their enemies to choke on their dead. It’s how they’ve won wars before, and Russian people proudly do anything for their motherland. And Putin is beloved there. LOL russian people almost burned the Kremlin after 25000 dead soldiers in Afghanistan, stop spreading your bot shit. We should step up and supply Ukraine now. With a real amount of weapons needed to fight a war, not token amounts barely enough to stay alive. 100 tanks and a million shells this year wont win this war. 1000 tanks and 10 million shells may do it. We need to provide nothing but money for an entire nations freedom and democracy and we arent doing it. Its a shame…. NATO is not at war with Russia. NATO countries are providing equipment to Ukraine. Tanks don’t move without drivers. Guns don’t fire without a person pulling the trigger. Equipment does not do anything if there is no one to equip it. Ukraine will run out of soldiers long, long, long before Russia and NATO will not start an offensive war as the aggressor just to provide soldiers to a non-NATO country.
I’m not sure exactly how many there are (and I’m sure it’s classified anyway), but I have heard about a lot of mercenaries in Ukraine. But whatever, call me an optimist. Yes you’re right, volunteers would be the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this more appropriate word. I just meant it in the sense that they are fighting for Ukraine as non-Ukrainians. Whoever they are and whatever they want to be called, they are awesome. I am thankful for all the foreigners helping Ukraine. Can’t provide troops directly without risking escalation. Munitions aplenty can’t replace the fallen. It’s how the Soviets eventually defeated Operation Barbarossa, and Putin is hoping to use that same willingness to water the fields in Russian blood to eventually outlast the Ukrainians. The problem is one political party in the US doesn’t want to help because “reasons” and the other political party is too afraid of escalation with Russia, despite at this point having basically nothing to fear of from that country.
With the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this US withholding help due to russian assets, populists and isolationists, Ukraine is hard-pressed for resources, including ammo. The EU hasn’t done enough to ramp up production, though they are slowly getting there. There is a huge propaganda effort by russia to paint the Ukrainian resistance as hopeless, “Ukraine cannot win”, etc. This is a very successful info-op, but it doesn’t make it true. russia also isn’t doing so well. They are losing a lot of troops and another round of mobilisation comes with large risks of even more people emigrating, and the rest (especially, mothers and wifes of mobilised soldiers) becoming even less happy. Cracks exist and are showing (with Prigozhin’s mutiny as one example), but the lid is being kept on them so far. They are digging deep in Cold War warehouses to restore equipment, and finding that those become older and more rusty.
It really is largely a battle of wills, between Ukraine + the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this West and russia. Is the West ready to greatly damage the rules-based international order and embolden China while disheartening their Asian allies? We’ll see. russia has violated past agreements (Helsinki accords, UN Charter, Budapest memorandum, Minsk agreements, etc.) so they are not a trustworthy counter-party, The US elections decide too much, both sides hope for a favourable outcome (trump for russia, Biden for Ukraine) and will wait it out. It’s politically unconscionable in Ukraine to leave so much territory in russian hands, because of the mass murder that they’ve seen happen in Bucha and elsewhere. Ignoring that this will mean a lot of Asian countries will pivot to China, as the US would seem as an unreliable partner Ignoring that this effectively destroys the equipment that a Western adversary – russia – has, without any boots on the ground needed, at rather low cost (a lot of spending goes to the US economy, a lot of ammo sent is approaching expiration and would need to be disposed anyway) Ignoring the reality that russia is burning its sovereign wealth fund rapidly, when it runs out, their economic situation becomes much worse Ignoring other systemic problems in the russian economy (GDP moving to the military sector, loss of workers to mobilisation and emigration, high inflation despite high interest rates, exchange rate only holding due to forced sale of hard currency, no foreign investment prospects, etc.)
Encourage the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this culture war and left/right divide in the USA in particular through their assets, useful idiots (e.g. musk) and bot farms In summary, the West has to get its act together and continue helping Ukraine. If that happens, russia will pull its troops home, like they did in Afghanistan. russia has to convince the West that it is hopeless, and invest enough in bribes and blackmail to push that narrative. Why do you think a smallish town completely reduced to rubble, taken at a cost of ~20k dead russians a “huge strategic loss”? Avdiivka was a major supply hub, but russia would have had to have taken it much more quickly for Ukraine not to just build more roads & railroads as they have I think something that needs to also be analysed and discussed is the different components of the military machine, the reserve size for these different components and attrition/production rate for these different categories. Its reductive but some key categories that appear to be limiting factors (in my surface level understanding) each need to be considered are: Each category gives a unique and important capability to each side and the consequences of over match in any category are unique and worth their own discussion.
Thus far we have not seen a “emergency level” combination of reserve depth and burn rate in any of these categories – hence the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this stale mate. One category I think is worth keeping a close eye on is Russian vehicle attrition rate. The attrition rate in this category has been horrendous for Russia and resulted in older and less capable platforms being rolled out en masse. I seriously doubt strategic over match in this category would result in Ukraine being able to decisively win a counter offensive (due to artillary, dug in infantry and mines) but I’m willing to bet this would blunt and prevent any sort of Russian offensive to the point that even grinding attrition like we have seen in Bakhmut or Avdivvka. Aircraft and anti aircraft are also worth a deep dive but this is an even more complex topic that I’m not confident weighing in on.
Excellent post, but I just want to applaud you for the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this effort to not once capitalize the r in russia. It’s petty in the best way! Current estimates of Russian casualties are at least 300,000 and they have taken ~25% of Ukraine’s land area with the vast majority having happened in the first month. Assuming that rate continues, Russia will lose over a million men, almost 1% of its population, to take the rest of Ukraine. A more conservative estimate using rates from the past year and a half which has been much slower, Russia lost 250,000 men to take 5% of Ukraine’s territory. If that rate continues, they will have to lose 5 million men, 1/30 of Russia’s population, to take Ukraine. This is not accounting for the fact that none of Ukraine’s largest cities are in Russian hands except for those that were already controlled by Russia in 2014. If Russia were to besiege Kharkiv, a city 20 times the size of pre war Bakhmut, then assuming similar casualty rates to Bakhmut, Russia would lose ~2 million men to take the city. To take Kyiv, they would lose 4 million.
Ukraine is certainly not winning any time soon, but neither is Russia. The amount of resources Russia would have to use to conquer all of Ukraine is not something Russia can spend. If Russia does win, it will take decades, and Russia will be left a hollowed out husk. That’s not to say Russia won’t do it, just that Ukraine is not really on the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this path to losing any time soon. The problem is you’re comparing land to troops, as if the life cost per foot of land is linear. Ukraine has troops too. And even if we’re using the generous estimates that there are twice as many Russian casualties as Ukrainian, Russia has 3x a bigger army. Russia will not need to lose 5 million men to take Ukraine because at the current rate: by the time they lose 1 million men every single Ukrainian soldier will be dead. At that point, taking unoccupied land and cities will cost next to no lives.
Like u/Bagelman263 said, that’s not how armies work, but the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this fucked up part is that, if history is anything to go off of, both countries could realistically keep up this rate of loss (of humans, not necessarily equipment) for a decade or more That’s not how armies work. If Ukraine sustains 500,000 casualties, that doesn’t mean the Ukrainian army disappears, it means Ukraine conscripts/pulls out of reserves 500,000 more men to fill the units lost. Russia still does have the edge in an attritional battle, but Ukraine is unlikely to stop fighting any time soon, and Russia can expect to face a similar amount of resistance as they are now for the rest of the war. If they do win, it will take a lot more blood then they’ve spent so far.
Those new 500,000 men will likely be less trained and less well-equipped. I don’t think a linear equation works here, it feels like there will be a breaking point, say, if Kiev falls. Most sources I have seen sugest that russian control is significantly down from the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this 27% shortly after the war to around 20% in June 2022 and around 15% now. These estimations never seem to price in the people that come with the land occupied. Russia is not taking some empty wasteland, they are capturing cities, where people live. The lower estimate of naturalized population on occupied territories is 1 million people. So, Russia had lost 300-400 hundred man to take 15% of the land AND people living there. Mathematically speaking, they have a net profit in population. It’s unsurprising that westies always forget to mention how many men Ukraine have lost. Always Russia “legit Pentagon” numbers and then no follow up. I wonder why.
Russia has never been losing as they have not been ejected from Ukraine. They’re willing to outlast Ukraine because they have more blood available to be shed. They have been losing overall. Their original plan (if I recall correctly) was to take Kyiv within a week. They now have about 15% of Ukraine and have been steadily losing ground for the Descendents Circle Jerks Europe And UK Tour 2025 Shirt But I will love this past two years. Yes, they have some victories as well of course, but it’s very hard to say who is “winning” at any particular moment. Wait until the weather gets warmer, we will see more movements. Edit: The defense minister in the UK said that Russia likely doesn’t have the resources there to take advantage of the real strategic value in Avdivvka yet anyway. Russia’s initial plan failed, Ukraine’s counter offensive failed, we’re sitting at a stalemate and Russia is hella successful historically of waiting out stalemates. Just gotta keep throwing Russian conscripts into the meat grinder over a decade until there’s no more Ukrainian bodies left to block them.

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